Skip to main content

Investors weigh the outlooks for rates and the economy as the dollar edges up.

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England will all be making significant policy decisions next week.

Investors weigh the outlooks for rates and the economy as the dollar edges up.

Investors and traders want to know if inflation has peaked, which would give policymakers room to raise interest rates more gradually in the coming months.

The Fed's policy meeting on December 14 is also important because it will come one day before the next monthly report on consumer inflation in the United States is due on December 15.

"Until we have those central bank meetings and one significant monthly U.S. data release, not a great deal is occurring," RBC currency analyst Adam Cole said. "U.S. CPI is the one data release that seems to really matter for broader dollar movement at the moment."

When compared to other major currencies, the dollar held constant. The last known value of the euro in US dollars was $1.0507, while the pound dropped 0.3% to $1.2171.

The Japanese currency, which is quite sensitive to changes in the yield on U.S. Treasuries, dropped by 0.25 percent to 136.90 on Thursday, giving up some of the 0.40 percent gain it had made the previous day.

Since reaching a 15-year high in late October, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined virtually constantly, losing over a full percentage point in that time. In fact, it has reversed over half of the increase that occurred between the four-month lows in August and the top in October (approximately 4.34%).

For the first time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February, oil prices have dropped below $80 a barrel as worries grow about the impact of a slowing economy on global energy consumption.

Brent oil futures are currently trading at roughly $78, having declined by nearly half from their 14-year high of $139.13 in early March. According to the American Automobile Association, national gasoline prices have dropped from June's record high of $5.016 to their current level of $3.329, a decrease of 0.4% from the same time last year.

.net/YwotbKdP4sVunJGfdhmgww/e8f260a6-84bf-4222-a093-e1ef14e44c00/

Inflationary expectations in the market have eased as a result of the decline in energy prices. Breakeven inflation over a 10-year period, calculated by subtracting the yield on an inflation-linked Treasury from the yield on a nominal 10-year note, is currently at 2.27%, down from a high of over 3% in April.

The dollar has lost 6.2% of its value so far this quarter due to these two factors and declining expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue rising interest rates at the same aggressive pace.

Refinitiv data shows that this has left the greenback on track for its worst quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2010, when it plummeted 8.5%, and its worst fourth-quarter performance since 2004.

Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG, wrote in a note that recent price action shows investors are growing less concerned about upside inflation risks and more anxious about negative risks to global GDP.

Overnight, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to its lowest level in nearly three months, but it has since recovered 5 basis points to finish the day at 3.45%.

According to the money markets, there is a 91% likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, will hike rates by 0.5 percentage points next week, and a 9% possibility that they would raise rates by an additional 75 basis points. Expectations for peak interest rates in May have been revised downward to slightly under 5%.

Meanwhile, the yuan was near its highest point in over three months as China eased some of its severe COVID controls.

Following the Chinese government's announcement on Wednesday that it would ease some of the COVID-19 restrictions that have severely impeded the economy, the value of the U.S. dollar rose by 0.1% to 6.9670 yuan in offshore trading.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The economy of Malaysia is expected to slow down in 2023.

According to statements made by analysts on Thursday, the economy of Malaysia will slow down in 2023 as a result of adverse external conditions and a slowdown in internal demand. According to Xinhua news agency, the Maybank Investment Bank Research said in a research that it anticipates Malaysia's full-year growth to drop to 4 percent in 2023 from the growth prediction of 8 percent in 2022. This is mostly reflective of a moderation in domestic demand. As pent-up spending from the complete economic re-opening evaporates next year, the research house anticipates slower growth in private consumption. This will be compounded by the effects of high inflation and high interest rates on the cost of living and real disposable income. It also forecasts a slowdown in the expansion of private consumption, which is expected to be in line with the reduced allocation for government operating expenses in Budget 2023. In addition, it was said that the forecast for slower global economic developmen

7-Day Wait for Vote to Fix Compound CETH Market Bricked By Update

A recent governance proposal to update the pricing feeds of Compound, a decentralized lending platform, was hampered by a programming error. Although the Compound ETH (cETH) market has "temporarily halted" due to the coding fault, Compound Labs assured users that their money is not in danger right away despite the front end's malfunction. On August 31, Compound Labs revealed that the code error originated from Proposal 117: Compound Oracle Upgrade v3, which had just been put into place to upgrade the oracle contracts on the Compound protocol to a new version that uses Uniswap V3 rather than V2 for price feeds. Compound Labs stated that it intended to use Proposal 119: Oracle Update to return to the prior price feed in response to the cETH market briefly freezing. Despite being created less than an hour after Proposal 117 was carried out, the new proposal must now go through a seven-day governance process before it can go into effect. According to an update from OpenZeppel

After major averages extended their losses to start the week, stock futures continued their downward trend.

The stock market futures went in the opposite direction on Tuesday morning, falling after the Bank of Japan indicated that it will increase the yield target range. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures market experienced a loss of 236 points, or 0.72 percent. Futures contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both had a decline of 1.05% and 0.86%, respectively. On Monday, ordinary trading on the Dow Jones Industrial Average resulted in a loss of more than 162 points, or around 0.5%. The S&P 500 had a loss of 0.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped almost 1.5%. The stock market is currently on track to finish the month and the year with a loss, and investors' expectations for a Santa Claus surge are rapidly diminishing. There has been no sign of Santa Claus as of yet. Louis Navellier, the founder of the growth investing firm Navellier & Associates, once advised his clients to "buckle up." "One would want to think that all of the bad news has been rep