Skip to main content

Investors weigh the outlooks for rates and the economy as the dollar edges up.

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England will all be making significant policy decisions next week.

Investors weigh the outlooks for rates and the economy as the dollar edges up.

Investors and traders want to know if inflation has peaked, which would give policymakers room to raise interest rates more gradually in the coming months.

The Fed's policy meeting on December 14 is also important because it will come one day before the next monthly report on consumer inflation in the United States is due on December 15.

"Until we have those central bank meetings and one significant monthly U.S. data release, not a great deal is occurring," RBC currency analyst Adam Cole said. "U.S. CPI is the one data release that seems to really matter for broader dollar movement at the moment."

When compared to other major currencies, the dollar held constant. The last known value of the euro in US dollars was $1.0507, while the pound dropped 0.3% to $1.2171.

The Japanese currency, which is quite sensitive to changes in the yield on U.S. Treasuries, dropped by 0.25 percent to 136.90 on Thursday, giving up some of the 0.40 percent gain it had made the previous day.

Since reaching a 15-year high in late October, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined virtually constantly, losing over a full percentage point in that time. In fact, it has reversed over half of the increase that occurred between the four-month lows in August and the top in October (approximately 4.34%).

For the first time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February, oil prices have dropped below $80 a barrel as worries grow about the impact of a slowing economy on global energy consumption.

Brent oil futures are currently trading at roughly $78, having declined by nearly half from their 14-year high of $139.13 in early March. According to the American Automobile Association, national gasoline prices have dropped from June's record high of $5.016 to their current level of $3.329, a decrease of 0.4% from the same time last year.

.net/YwotbKdP4sVunJGfdhmgww/e8f260a6-84bf-4222-a093-e1ef14e44c00/

Inflationary expectations in the market have eased as a result of the decline in energy prices. Breakeven inflation over a 10-year period, calculated by subtracting the yield on an inflation-linked Treasury from the yield on a nominal 10-year note, is currently at 2.27%, down from a high of over 3% in April.

The dollar has lost 6.2% of its value so far this quarter due to these two factors and declining expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue rising interest rates at the same aggressive pace.

Refinitiv data shows that this has left the greenback on track for its worst quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2010, when it plummeted 8.5%, and its worst fourth-quarter performance since 2004.

Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG, wrote in a note that recent price action shows investors are growing less concerned about upside inflation risks and more anxious about negative risks to global GDP.

Overnight, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to its lowest level in nearly three months, but it has since recovered 5 basis points to finish the day at 3.45%.

According to the money markets, there is a 91% likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, will hike rates by 0.5 percentage points next week, and a 9% possibility that they would raise rates by an additional 75 basis points. Expectations for peak interest rates in May have been revised downward to slightly under 5%.

Meanwhile, the yuan was near its highest point in over three months as China eased some of its severe COVID controls.

Following the Chinese government's announcement on Wednesday that it would ease some of the COVID-19 restrictions that have severely impeded the economy, the value of the U.S. dollar rose by 0.1% to 6.9670 yuan in offshore trading.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The partnership between QuizTalk and Meta-Airline is an NFT strategic alliance.

The alliance's primary objective is to expand the breadth of NFT markets both domestically and internationally by ensuring that both organizations' platforms feature NFT content. SK Telecom's Ifland metaverse service recently sponsored a quiz show by QuizTalk Co., Ltd., which has expanded its presence in the NS home shopping and live commerce industry. QTCON has now been made available on the three largest domestic exchanges, Bithumb, Upbit, and Coinone. It also debuted on the international cryptocurrency exchange Gate.io. About 780 million answers, 1.32 million quizzes, and 700,000 downloads can be found on QuizTalk's "QUIZTOK" platform. You can earn points for answering a quiz question on Quiz Talk, and the person who posed the question can earn points as well. To make it easier for one's followers to access quizzes, a quiz curator has been implemented. If a company wants to promote itself on QuizTalk, it must first acquire and use tokens. Your MAL-SCAN ...

North Korean hackers are using almost 500 phishing domains to steal NFTs.

The hackers made fake websites that looked like NFT projects, NFT marketplaces, and even a DeFi platform. Hackers with ties to North Korea's Lazarus Group are said to be behind a massive phishing campaign that targets investors in nonfungible tokens (NFTs). The campaign uses nearly 500 phishing domains to trick people into giving away their personal information. SlowMist, a blockchain security company, released a report on December 24 that showed the methods that North Korean Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups have used to trick NFT investors out of their NFTs. These methods include putting up fake websites that look like different platforms and projects related to NFTs. Some of these fake websites include one that pretends to be a World Cup project and others that try to look like popular NFT marketplaces like OpenSea, X2Y2, and Rarible. SlowMist said that one of the methods was for these fake websites to offer "malicious mints," which trick the victims into thinkin...